A brewing cyclone, a powerful monsoon and up to 100mm of rain along the east coast is on the menu for Easter. But some will escape with blue skies.
There are three things you might want to remember this Easter: fish on Good Friday, a chocolate egg or two on Sunday and an umbrella for the whole weekend.
Forecasters are warning it could be a soggy Easter in the country’s east and south west while the Top End and north west Western Australia may need to start hunkering down for a coming cyclone.
“We could see an increase in rain through the Easter weekend,” said Sky News Weather meteorologist Ron Sharpe.
That could be concentrated around the Queensland and northern New South Wales coasts as well as the Northern Territory.
But if you’re in Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania or much of Western Australia, sunshine and pleasant weather is likely to be on the menu for Easter lunch.
A high pressure system over southern Australia will should lead to generally fine and mild conditions over much of the country leading into the Easter weekend.
But instability is brewing.
Possible tropical cyclone brewing
Off the north coast of Australia, the monsoon is bubbling back into life once more. The real drama is further west, though, said Mr Sharpe.
“There’s low pressure system and that’s expected to strengthen.
“It’s about a 50/50 chance to become a tropical cyclone — maybe even slightly greater than that,” he said.
“It’s most likely to develop off the coast of the Kimberley. However, some models do bring it a bit closer to the Top End, so we cannot rule it out that it could be nearby to Darwin.”
The NT city should see some rain during the week but a combination of the monsoon and a possible cyclone somewhere in the vicinity, should lead to a wet Easter with 30mm on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will hover around 31C.
Queensland and NSW Easter weather outlook
To the east, rain is building without the encouragement of a cyclone.
“A cold air pulse is slowly edging up Queensland over the coming days. With a trough off the Queensland coast, showers will start to build up along the coast and as it drifts further south it will start to interact with upper level cold air over the centre of the state increasing areas of rain and probably triggering a small low or two to develop.”
Mr Sharpe said there was some uncertainly with the metrological models, with Easter still some days away, but it was pointing to substantial downpours — although not the level of the recent floods.
They could mean an average of about 50mm of rain along the Queensland coast and into northern NSW. But that could seesaw from 20mm in some areas to over 100mm in others.
For Brisbane, possible showers all week but it’s set to crank up over the weekend and into next week with as much as 25mm on Easter Monday and into Tuesday.
Heading south across the border and some of those sodden areas, fresh from the flooding, could get a top up of moisture particularly towards the end of the Easter weekend with 25mm falling.
Port Macquarie should expect 10mm on Monday and a further 15mm on Tuesday.
Mostly Sunday in Sydney this week with temperatures in the mid-20s. Rain is a possibility from Easter Monday, potentially heavy on Tuesday.
Easter weather around the other capitals
Head further south, however, and the rain will likely peter out, particularly away from the east coast.
Canberra should be sunny all week with highs heading into the high 20s.
Similar in Melbourne but it could top out at 30C on Easter Saturday before falling to 21C on Sunday.
Dry in Hobart with a high of 28C on Saturday and then, like Melbourne, the mercury will sink by as much as 10C on Sunday.
Blue skies and a few clouds in Adelaide; temperatures will slowly creep up into the low 30s this week, peaking at 33C on Good Friday and then sliding back into the mid-20s from Sunday.
A trough could sheer through south west WA towards Easter. Margaret River is looking at showers on Maundy Thursday and a storm on Good Friday before the sun makes a return on Saturday.
It will be more settled in Perth with a week around the high twenties and low thirties and a maximum of 32C on Easter Sunday.