Nightmare weather moving further south

Heavy rainfall and damaging winds are moving into Victoria, as multiple areas are put on flood watch amid a week of horror weather on the east coast.

Heavy rainfall and damaging winds are expected to hit Victoria on Tuesday as a nightmare weather system wreaking havoc in NSW dips further south.

A severe weather and flood warning has been issued by the weather bureau for parts of eastern and southern Victoria.

“A deepening low pressure system will move southeast across NSW (on Tuesday), reaching the southern NSW coast late tonight then becoming slow moving over eastern Bass Strait on Wednesday,” the bureau said.

“Peak gusts to 110km/h are possible about the southern Gippsland coast.”

Locations likely to be affected include Wonthaggi, Mallacoota, Cann River, Chandlers Creek, Combienbar and Bonang.

The bureau said heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding during Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Senior meteorologist Richard Russell said the system would bring increasing rainfall across east Gippsland before spreading into southern Gippsland, particularly the Strzelecki Ranges, and the Otway Ranges.

“(On Tuesday) we‘re looking at this low pressure system rapidly intensifying across NSW and it will track quite quickly towards the south coast of NSW by late Tuesday afternoon and early evening,” he said.

“It will intensify further and then move over the East Gippsland coastal waters where it sit for most of Wednesday before finally moving away.”

He said from midday Tuesday through to Wednesday night, localised rainfall totals of 80-120mm were possible east of Orbost, with 150-200mm possible about the Strzelecki Ranges and Wilsons Promontory, and 100-150mm possible about the Otway Ranges.

“The heavy rainfall that we’re looking at could also lead to some localised flooding, so that’s rapid water rises not just involving rivers but gullies, creeks and areas that don’t generally get a flood warning associated with it,” Mr Russell said.

“We have some quite significant winds around that low pressure system that will intensify late (on Tuesday) with some potential for some damaging wind gusts across much of the Gippsland coast.”

He said Melbourne had “missed the worst of it” with just patchy showers through until Wednesday afternoon.

“If that low centre does unfortunately move west of the Prom, the impacts will be much higher in Melbourne, but having said that the expectation for rainfall in Melbourne is around 5-15mm,” he said.

Mr Russell reassured Victorians the impact in the state wouldn’t be anywhere near that of NSW and Queensland.

“The quite humid tropical air mass feeding across eastern Australia is more intense and feeding onto the NSW and Queensland ranges so the orientation of the Great Divide plays a big role,” he said.

“Also the position of the high pressure system for much of the week over the southern Tasman Sea has kept most of that activity further north from us.”

A flood watch has been issued for the Bemm, Cann, Genoa and Snowy River catchments, with a minor flood warning current for the Snowy River.

The State Emergency Service warned residents in affected areas to avoid dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees and to stay inside away from windows if possible.

jack.paynter@news.com.au

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